In a recent post, Benjamin Cowen discussed the significance of Bitcoin dominance in the crypto market. He pointed out that Bitcoin is currently facing a decision on whether to rise above its Bull Market Support Band (BMSB) or continue to face resistance. This is a familiar pattern, as Bitcoin has slid below its BMSB in previous years, such as in August 2023. However, history shows that Bitcoin has rallied strongly in the past after dropping below this level.
Cowen drew parallels between Bitcoin’s performance in 2013 and 2024, noting that both years saw Bitcoin finding a local low on July 5th. He suggested that if Bitcoin follows a similar pattern to 2013, it could reclaim the BMSB and rally in Q4. Historically, Bitcoin tends to peak in Q4 of the post-halving year, which for this cycle would be 2025. Cowen predicts a strong rally in Bitcoin dominance in Q4, potentially peaking around 60%.
Cowen also highlighted the importance of Bitcoin’s 2-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) in determining its future path. This analysis provides a technical framework for understanding Bitcoin’s potential movements. Additionally, he discussed market sentiment and altcoin behavior, noting that more money is flowing into altcoins as each cycle progresses.
In conclusion, Cowen believes that Bitcoin’s performance in Q4 2024 will depend on its ability to overcome resistance and reclaim the BMSB. Whether Bitcoin will follow past patterns and rally or continue to struggle remains to be seen. As we move through the summer, it will be interesting to see how Bitcoin and the overall crypto market evolve in the coming months.