US job vacancies decreased in May, with private firms hiring fewer employees. Despite this, the US services sector remained strong despite high borrowing costs. Nonfarm payrolls showed a better performance than expected in the labor market.
The AUD/USD weekly forecast is bearish due to positive US employment data creating uncertainty about future Fed rate cuts. The AUD/USD pair had a bearish week as the dollar strengthened, but initially, the Aussie was strong on expectations of Fed rate cuts. Reports indicated a slowdown in the US economy, with a drop in job vacancies and hiring by private firms.
Although the services sector remained robust, GDP data in Australia showed smaller-than-expected growth. The week ended with the nonfarm payrolls report showing strong performance, leading to a rally in the dollar and reduced rate-cut expectations.
Next week, investors will focus on US inflation data and the FOMC policy meeting, while Australia’s employment figures will impact RBA rate cut expectations. A decline in rate-cut expectations in the US would strengthen the dollar against the Aussie.
On the technical side, the AUD/USD price broke below the 22-SMA, indicating a bearish shift. The RSI also moved into bearish territory, suggesting a potential retest of the 0.6501 support level. If a new downtrend begins, the price may drop below the 0.6401 support level.