The Eurozone preliminary core CPI rate for April continued to decrease to 2.7% year-on-year, marking the slowest inflationary pressure since February 2022. This trend, coupled with the widening spread between 2-year and 10-year Eurozone sovereign bonds and US Treasuries, suggests a potential bearish outlook for the EUR/USD in the medium to long term.
Key resistance at 1.0740 on the EUR/USD should be monitored ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on 1 May. The currency pair has been on a downward trajectory since reaching a high of 1.1140 in December 2023, with a cumulative decline of 4.8% (538 pips) over the past four months.
The direction of the EUR/USD in the medium to long term will likely be influenced by inflation trends in the Eurozone and the US, which in turn impact the monetary policies of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. The Eurozone’s decelerating inflation rate compared to the US suggests a weaker Euro against the US dollar.
In the short term, the EUR/USD has been trading sideways near its 20-day moving average, with resistance at 1.0740 and support at 1.0680. A break below the support level could lead to further weakness, while a clearance above the resistance may signal a corrective rebound.
Overall, market fundamentals support a weaker EUR/USD in the medium to long term, with inflation trends and central bank policies playing a key role in shaping the currency pair’s direction. It is important to note that this content is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. The Benefits of Regular Exercise for Overall Health
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