The EUR/USD pair experienced some back and forth movement after the US Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates steady, in line with investors’ expectations. However, there was a desire for more clarity on potential rate cuts in the future. Currently, the market is predicting a single rate cut in November.
Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated that it is unlikely the next policy rate move will be a hike. On Thursday, final HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) data from Europe is expected to match preliminary figures. This sector makes up less than a quarter of Europe’s economy.
Market focus will shift to Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, with expectations for 243K jobs added in April. The previous month saw 303K new jobs. Investors will also be watching for any revisions to data, particularly in light of ongoing layoffs in various sectors of the US economy. Average Hourly Earnings MoM in April are expected to remain steady at 0.3%, amid concerns about inflation.
In terms of technical analysis, the EUR/USD pair has been consolidating near the 1.0700 level for the past six trading days. The 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) serves as a key midrange level, with upper and lower boundaries at 1.0740 and 1.0650 respectively. On daily candles, there is support around 1.0600, while resistance is seen near the 200-day EMA at 1.0790.
Charts show the hourly and daily outlook for EUR/USD, indicating the recent price movements and potential areas of support and resistance. Investors will be closely monitoring economic data releases and central bank statements to gauge the future direction of the currency pair.