The seasonal analysis of USD/CHF for the month of June suggests a potential downside for this currency pair. Looking back at the performance of USD/CHF for each June since 2000, it has shown a decline in 75% of the cases. While seasonal trends should not be the sole factor in decision-making, they can be a valuable tool when combined with other indicators.
In May, the Swiss National Bank’s Jordan mentioned a slight upward risk to the central bank’s inflation forecast, raising doubts about a possible rate cut in June. This has supported the Swiss franc and limited the upside potential for USD/CHF. The probability of a SNB policy rate cut next week stands at just over 50%, according to the LSEG Interest Rate Probability App.
In terms of technical analysis, USD/CHF’s upward movement in May faced resistance near the 0.9240 Fibo level, which is a 50% retracement of the drop from 1.0150 to 0.8330 in 2022 to 2023. This indicates a bearish market structure that could continue to impact the pair in the coming weeks.
Overall, the seasonal analysis and recent developments point to a potential downward trend for USD/CHF in June. For more information, stay tuned for updates.