A trader known as Dave the Wave, who accurately predicted the start of the 2021 bear market, believes that Bitcoin (BTC) has likely hit its low for this cycle based on historical patterns. Dave the Wave, who has a following of 190,000 on social media platform X, points to Bitcoin’s monthly moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator showing signs of contraction, which typically indicates a temporary slowdown in a bullish trend.
The MACD is a tool used by traders to identify potential reversal points in a trend. Despite the contraction in the MACD, Dave the Wave does not foresee a significant drop in Bitcoin’s price, noting that the indicator has not reached the same levels seen in previous bull markets. He attributes this to the fact that the market is maturing and suggests that new patterns may emerge over time.
Analyzing Dave the Wave’s charts, it appears that the monthly MACD for Bitcoin has not yet approached the diagonal resistance line, indicating that the current bull market may still have room to run. On the weekly timeframe, the trader compares Bitcoin’s current MACD structure to that of July 2016, following a halving event and just before a major bull run. He points out that after a similar MACD cross in the past, the price low was already established.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $61,448. Dave the Wave’s analysis suggests that the cryptocurrency may have already hit its lowest point for this cycle, with potential for further upside based on historical patterns.