In a recent forecast by Timothy Peterson, a well-known network economist and crypto analytics expert, it was predicted that the price of Bitcoin is likely to rise significantly in the next 8 months. Peterson confidently stated that there is a 90% chance that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high (ATH) before March 2025.
Peterson’s forecast is based on his research paper titled “Lowest Price Forward: Why Bitcoin’s Price is Never Looking Back,” which introduces a unique approach to analyzing Bitcoin’s price trajectory. This method focuses on historical lowest prices known as the “Never Look Back Price” (NLB), marking the last time Bitcoin was traded at a specific price point without dropping to that level again.
By using a lognormal scale adjusted by a “square root time” scale, Peterson’s analysis provides a deeper understanding of Bitcoin’s long-term growth patterns. He applies Metcalfe’s Law to Bitcoin, which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its users, suggesting that as Bitcoin’s user base grows, its intrinsic value will increase exponentially.
Peterson’s approach incorporates elements of conservative financial analysis by emphasizing Bitcoin’s lowest historical prices. By focusing on the NLB, the analysis aims to filter out anomalies and market manipulations that can distort price perceptions, offering a clearer view of Bitcoin’s value appreciation unaffected by short-term speculative pressures.
The prediction of a new ATH before March 2025 reflects a general confidence in the sustained growth of the Bitcoin network. As adoption rates increase and network effects strengthen Bitcoin’s value, the forecast is grounded in quantifiable historical trends rather than mere speculation.
In conclusion, Peterson emphasizes the importance of continued adoption for Bitcoin’s value to rise. If adoption is hindered, the price may stagnate or drop. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $58,192.