- In the first week of August, the total crypto market cap is on target for a fifth consecutive weekly rise.
- US economic indicators eased fears of a US economic recession, supporting riskier assets.
- Technical indicators remain bullish, signaling further upside.
It has been a bullish start to August, with US economic indicators delivering support to the broader crypto market.
On Wednesday, service sector PMI numbers for July eased fears of a US economic recession. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose from 55.3 to 56.7 versus a forecast of 53.5.
While jobless claims figures disappointed on Thursday, nonfarm payrolls further eased market stress over the economic outlook. In July, nonfarm payrolls surged by 528k, beating a 250k forecast. In June, payrolls increased by 398k.
While the numbers eased fears of an economic recession, bets of a hefty Fed rate hike in September could test the appetite for riskier assets.
In the first week of August, the NASDAQ 100 rose by a modest 2.15%, with a 0.50% loss on Friday limiting the upside.
While macroeconomic data provided support, crypto network updates and news delivered mixed results.
For the current week, Monday through Saturday morning, Ethereum (ETH) and Polkadot (DOT) led the way, rising by 2.56% and 1.97%, respectively, with Cardano (ADA) also avoiding the red (+0.43%), despite the Vasil hard fork delay.
However, Solana (SOL) was down 4.65% to buck the broader market trend.
For the current week, Monday through Saturday morning, ADA was up 0.43% to $0.5188. A mixed start to the week saw ADA rise to a Monday high of $0.5266 before falling to a Tuesday low of $0.4890.
Steering clear of the previous week low of $0.4509 and the May 12 current-year low of $0.3919, ADA found support to revisit $0.52 levels before easing back.
For Cardano, the Vasil hard fork delay limited the upside going into Saturday.
On a trend analysis basis, ADA would need to move through the July high of $0.5556 to target the June high of $0.6688. A fall through last week’s low of $0.4509 would bring the current-year low of $0.3919 into view.
Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bullish signal. On Saturday, ADA stood above the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.5081. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, ADA price positives.
A further widening of the 50-day EMA from the 100-day and 200-day EMAs would support a run at the June high.
However, ADA would need to hold above the 50-day EMA to avoid a fall through the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.5017, to bring sub-$0.50 into view.
Monday through Saturday morning, DOT is up 1.97% to $8.80. Tracking the broader market, DOT rose to a Monday high of $8.99 before falling to a Tuesday low of $7.68. Finding support from the crypto market, DOT bounced back to a high of $8.88 before easing back.
News of Alchemy expanding into the Polkadot ecosystem through the Astar partnership delivered support. Significantly, DOT moved into the crypto top ten, by replacing Dogecoin.
Looking at the trends, a DOT move through the July high of $9.20 would support a run at $10.00 and the June high of $10.73. From $10.73, DOT would have a clear run at the May high of $16.44.
In the event of an extended reversal, steering clear of the July and current-year low of $5.99 remains the key.
Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, the signal was bullish. DOT sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $8.1739. On Saturday, the 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, both Polkadot price positives.
A hold above the 50-day EMA would support the current run at $10.00. However, DOT needs to avoid the 50-day EMA and sub-$8.00 to deliver a breakout from the July high ($9.20).
For the current week, Monday through to early Saturday, ETH was up by 2.56% to $1,723. Sentiment towards progress towards the Merge took a backseat this week. Apprehension ahead of key US economic indicators led ETH to a Tuesday low of $1,562. Finding support going into Friday, however, ETH struck a Saturday high of $1,750 before easing back.
For Ethereum, news updates on the Merge will remain the key driver, though price volatility may pick up ahead of US economic indicators.
Looking at the trends, ETH would need a breakout from the July high of $1,788 to target the June high of $1,972 and $2,000.
However, downside risks remain should developers announce any delay to the September Merge. A fall to sub-$1,500 would bring the July low of $1,010 into view.
Looking at the EMAs,…